Today’s (pre NFP) TECHS …

HERE IS A LINK to this mornings TECHNICALS.pdf

If/when you click it you will find daily pivots to help inform trading/investing needs. Today’s PIVOTS are: 5s vs 2.78; 10s vs 2.95; 30s vs 3.13

With prices nearly and universally UNCH — as you’d expect them to be on MOVING DAY (between ADP and NFP) — and positions were squared (stocks down almost 400pts at one point, ended nearly UNCH?) it seems appropriate to NOT say too much more than I did YESTERDAY (10s vs 2.95, 5s vs 2.80 and vs 2s10s**). NOTE that I ended with a look at S&P vs BEARISH MOMENTUM and ‘contained by 50/200dMAs and its with that in mind .. well Turns out I may not be so stoopid after all? Lets begin with an updated look at S&P. 

You’ll ALSO FIND THESE UPDATESBBG on DOWs 200dMA ‘under threat’; BMO on 2s and 5s newly defined and narrower channels; COMMERZ WEEKLY (yields are side-lined short-term BUT trend higher remains in place); CSFB on 10s closing BELOW 1st important ‘resistance’ (2.96/95) means short-term squeeze ‘in low conviction bearish positions is possible’ — retain BEARISH BIAS, expect 10s to retest 3.05%; NWM stopped out // CLOSED SHORT 5s vs 2s10s; SocGEN note on DXY (broken ABOVE multi month resist of 91/91.90) also on 10s — defending 3.05 both 2013 LOWS and lower band of ‘perennial channel’

Here are some levels as of 5:10am

As far as US/China trade talks go, here’s RTRS on ‘OUR side’

Treasury Secretary says having good trade talks in China

Have a good start and May the 4th be with you…

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Moving Day: between ADP and NFP (and more…)

Change is often hard but they say nothing good in life is easy. No, I’m not specifically talking about Bloomberg.com’s changes you’ll notice today if/when you attempt to click — they are now running a subscription model. Nice. I’m specifically speaking to change — as in the current delivery mechanism here. Hopefully you’ve gotten an email with link thru to this page and I hope that’s been easy/painless enough.

HERE is a link thru to 1pg PDF (see your email for password)

Click it and you’ll note visual which is ONE reason USTs are bid, flatter (NO-flation in the EZ). You’ll ALSO see a couple headlines (RTRS on how it is that EZ yields approaching 2wk lows after CPI missed to the downside and another from RTRS on how it is Iran will NOT renegotiate nuke deal … dems fightin words, stocks are reflecting ALL this).

HERE is a link straight thru to what is on MY MIND …  Just a few thoughts AFTER the day that WAS (or really could have been but wasn’t) and BEFORE tomorrows all important NFP. Watch the (5s30s) yield curve down-trend vs 35bps (NWM), NOTE WSJ story on how STOCKS FELL YEST as JUNE LIKES LIKE A HIKE (surprising nobody save for … stock jockeys?) and back TO the yield curve – perhaps WE are watching the wrong curve (GAVEKAL, via ZH on curve flashing WARNING …  watch Baa corp bond yield – avg bank prime rate) … Right. GOT IT. Again, change is coming – more than just BBG who’s decided to CHARGE (?) and I realize change is HARD. In THIS CASE, though, changes coming from this desk are going to be GOOD for all! I promise! STAY TUNED and thanks for patience!!

HERE are some technicals I’ve cobbled together where I highlight 10s vs 2.95% (a big fat nothin’ burger past few days) as well as 5s vs 2.80% as important. ALSO NOTE 5s remain BID (vs 2s10s) and do note stocks (S&P) contained by 50/200dMA

Finally, the sell-side — clicking up single page PDF you’ll note a few of the things which caught MY eyes over the past couple days … Specifically that MS has a below consensus NFP pre-cap (think 145m) but an ABOVE CONSENSUS TRADE IDEA (as in BUY 10y futures IF NFP beats by 20m or more…they say backtests look splendid … can’t make this stuff up)

Stay tuned for MORE (as in somewhat more coherent bond market thoughts over the weekend and possibly even BIGGER NEWS OF CHANGE) and have a profitable day!

best, Steve

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Todays TECHS and some EZ no-flation news …

HERE IS A LINK to this mornings TECHNICALS.pdf 

If/when you click it you will find daily pivots to help inform trading/investing needs. Today’s PIVOTS are: 5s vs 2.81; 10s vs 2.97; 30s vs 3.14

As far as today’s TECHS, you’ll note GP: 10s remain near 2.95 (with BULLISH momentum — will NFP ‘tip the scales’?); 5s vs 2.80 — attempting to break badly for the bears? ALSO NOTE 5s remain well BID vs 2s10s; S&P has BEARISH momentum and remains contained by 50d and 200dMAs; Citi (OD) notes all on runs are ‘turning bullish’; CitiFX Weekly all GBP all the time (think more GBP weakness relative TO USD); CSFBs WEEKLY — focus DXY (break HIGHER above 200dMA) and as far as 10s — remain on HIGH ALERT FOR TECH TOP (key resistance 2.91/895) and watching BULL TRIANGLE for S&P; 30s watching BEARISH DRAGONFLY DOJI (Wed) think HIGHER YLDS; KIMBLE on Deja VU for the EURO as well as an IMPORTANT TEST for S&P uptrend; NWM on 5s30s T-line RESISTANCE just below 35bps; SocGEN on BASE METALS POTENTIALLY BEARISH FORMATIONS — ie Dr COPPER!! 

Here are some levels as of 5am:

As far as some news driving overnight price action, it’s worth noting another holiday holiday in Japan has kept volumes subdued BUT at 5a, EZ inflation slipped and has given FI a bid. From BBG:

Euro-Area Inflation Unexpectedly Slows, Muddying ECB Exit Debate

As far as some OTHER NEWS informing price action, HERE is link thru to IGMs PRESS PICKS for today
Have a good start…
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