technicals, positions and NFIB

Good morning. In light of the NFIB out a short while ago, I thought I’d offer a ‘quick hit’ here with some details as well as a link thru to some TECHNICALS to consider ahead of this afternoons 3yr auction. First, NFIB:

Yes it was better than ‘consensus’ compiled/offered by Bloomberg but ‘up a tenth’ doesn’t seem like too much to get excited about. Then again, a few quotes FROM the NFIB

“Never in the history of this survey have we seen profit trends so high”, said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. “The optimism small businesses owners have about the economy is turning into new job creation, increased wages and benefits, and investment.”

AND

“There is no question that small business is booming,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Consumer spending, the new tax law, and lower regulatory barriers are all supporting the surge in optimism across all small business industry sectors.”

Click, read and decide for yourself. There’s NO DOUBT ‘profit trends’ are movin’ on UP like The Jeffersons … Here’s THAT visual and you can clearly see they are ALMOST OUT OF NEGATIVE TERRITORY:

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends improved 3 percentage points to a net negative 1 percent reporting quarter on quarter profit improvements, the best reading in the survey’s 45 year history. Although the new tax law will impact profits this year, much of the current improvement is due to gains in operating profits and stronger sales. Sales gains from stronger growth fall to the bottom line before costs such as rising labor costs catch up. Overall, the new tax law and the strong economy are very supportive of profit improvements.

Next, HERE IS A LINK thru to technicals.pdf where you’ll note 3s vs 2s5s suggest there’s been a concession on the curve — whether or not this will be enough, well, remains to be seen. What ALSO remains to be seen is IF Dealers have any capacity left in the tank to help if needed. They are quite LONG 3yrs and in:

(for MORE position-related visuals SEE HERE)

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