ahead of today’s **breaking (NPF) news** …’May the Fourth Be With You’

Mr. Market doing what it does best and specifically, figuring out wherein the most PAIN is, and then heading there … As is always the case, doing so ahead of this mornings NFP, well, makes all the more sense. Here’s a visual of The Belly (5s vs 2s10s) I’ve been following. 5s are clearly related TO whatever whim the Fed chooses to express (note via EconoDay Dudley @ 1245p, Williams @ 3p, Quarles @ 530p and more over the weekend). So when the NFP-data dust finally settles and the ‘Hamptons Hedge’ goes into full effect for the 1st time this year (it’s gonna be another scorcher here in the NE), lets consider where this ENDS the day:

Now, I mention this here and now and in context of pain trade as I recently read update of what seemed to be a good idea at the time:

…Finally, a note on our active trades. We will take off our short 5s on 2s5s10s cash at today’s close, entered at 15bp. We entered into this trade as a tactical position ahead of the May refunding, with the view that Treasury would boost 5s and 7s issuance both more than in February and more than the market anticipated. But we found Treasury’s refunding announcement to be underwhelming in terms of new coupon supply, both relative to our own (admittedly aggressive) expectation and our view of the market consensus. –NWM closing thoughts (May 3rd)

In other completely UNRELATED NEWS, ZH captures this spirit even better than I could SO

Bill Gross Throws In Towel On Bond Bear Market

Where ZH points out the following GROSS TWEET:

Maybe the LOWER FOR LONGER concept and theme is not quite dead yet!

Here’s one — check out “A History Of US Inflation, Real 10y Rates and Fed Chairs” via Christian Thwaites and Linked IN

And so, I ask you Clubber. Any predictions for the fight??

Stay tuned for even MORE **BREAKING NEWS** and a more complete recap of today’s NFP along with some thoughts over the weekend as you prepare for the week AHEAD …

May the Fourth Be With You…

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