Moving Day: between ADP and NFP (and more…)

Change is often hard but they say nothing good in life is easy. No, I’m not specifically talking about’s changes you’ll notice today if/when you attempt to click — they are now running a subscription model. Nice. I’m specifically speaking to change — as in the current delivery mechanism here. Hopefully you’ve gotten an email with link thru to this page and I hope that’s been easy/painless enough.

HERE is a link thru to 1pg PDF (see your email for password)

Click it and you’ll note visual which is ONE reason USTs are bid, flatter (NO-flation in the EZ). You’ll ALSO see a couple headlines (RTRS on how it is that EZ yields approaching 2wk lows after CPI missed to the downside and another from RTRS on how it is Iran will NOT renegotiate nuke deal … dems fightin words, stocks are reflecting ALL this).

HERE is a link straight thru to what is on MY MIND …  Just a few thoughts AFTER the day that WAS (or really could have been but wasn’t) and BEFORE tomorrows all important NFP. Watch the (5s30s) yield curve down-trend vs 35bps (NWM), NOTE WSJ story on how STOCKS FELL YEST as JUNE LIKES LIKE A HIKE (surprising nobody save for … stock jockeys?) and back TO the yield curve – perhaps WE are watching the wrong curve (GAVEKAL, via ZH on curve flashing WARNING …  watch Baa corp bond yield – avg bank prime rate) … Right. GOT IT. Again, change is coming – more than just BBG who’s decided to CHARGE (?) and I realize change is HARD. In THIS CASE, though, changes coming from this desk are going to be GOOD for all! I promise! STAY TUNED and thanks for patience!!

HERE are some technicals I’ve cobbled together where I highlight 10s vs 2.95% (a big fat nothin’ burger past few days) as well as 5s vs 2.80% as important. ALSO NOTE 5s remain BID (vs 2s10s) and do note stocks (S&P) contained by 50/200dMA

Finally, the sell-side — clicking up single page PDF you’ll note a few of the things which caught MY eyes over the past couple days … Specifically that MS has a below consensus NFP pre-cap (think 145m) but an ABOVE CONSENSUS TRADE IDEA (as in BUY 10y futures IF NFP beats by 20m or more…they say backtests look splendid … can’t make this stuff up)

Stay tuned for MORE (as in somewhat more coherent bond market thoughts over the weekend and possibly even BIGGER NEWS OF CHANGE) and have a profitable day!

best, Steve

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