Wednesday – March 31st, 2010

  • Holding back job growth? Workers’ awesome output: WashPost
  • Tax Receipts Rebound in U.S. as 15 Biggest States Forecast 4% Gain in 2011: Bloomy
  • Europe Inflation Jumps More Than Forecast, Jobless Rate Hits 11-Year High: Bloomy
  • Loomis Sayles’ Dan Fuss Seconds Bill Gross Forecasting Treasuries to Fall: Bloomy 

We are one step closer to ‘job growth’ and while we do value the ADP report (today’s StreetStuff has a decent visual from DB on good correlation) we must admit that IF Census workers are going to be a large driver AND ADP doesn’t encompass govt workers, we’re hard-pressed to talk/think any more about ADP let alone trade/invest on it. Continuing along the lines of the StreetStuff attachment today and mention yet another (defensive) note from MS talkin their (higher-yld) ‘book’. In their eyes ‘we can get there from here’ and they think about ‘consequence of supply’ and we’d have a hard time arguing it (although we would be more inclined to fade the NFP-related uptic – we’ve more on HOW in our rant). Finally, thinking past today’s ADP, we’re aware of the NOT huge month-end index extension as if it is written off early on (+0.6yrs) as not major impact, perhaps it will matter? Finally, thinking about the close of biz today – month end and the end of a QE era – before tomorrow’s supply announcement – makes it even MORE difficult to initiate trades given the holiday hours over next few days along with the less-than-normal staffing that will accompany light hours and trading activity. In as far as The Press today, we’ve linked to a WashPost story about productivity and the implications for jobs – good news is bad news sort of thing (higher productivity = less hiring needs for companies) which affirms sluggish jobs market for years to come. Have at it all and have a great start to your ADP Wednesday. Best, Saul/Steve

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Given Opening Day is getting close, thought today’s password deserved a video (of the Yankees latest pitching prospect). SOME call him FREAK:

For the RECORD – his name – Venditte – is being pronounced on Bloomy as P-DIDDY says HIS. That just makes it all the more SWEET! Gotta love baseball season!!

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